Kronos Engine forecasts crypto price as a calibrated probability distribution and uses that distribution to discipline how capital is sized — it de-risks rather than predicts. It's backtested and deploy-ready, but not yet live-traded. The honest reckoning came from out-of-sample testing on a 74-day, 1,800-candle XRP window: the model has no directional edge (~48.6% hit rate, a coin flip) and lost to a naïve persistence baseline on volatility by ~38%, so I cut both of those uses entirely. The one property that held up was calibration — about 79% of realised prices landed inside the 80% forecast band — so the engine now leans on that single verified strength. It sizes off how wide the distribution is, and steps aside ahead of scheduled macro events.
- Forecasting core: TimesFM-2.5 (200M-param, Google Research) run zero-shot with a native quantile head — direct quantile forecasts at a 1h candle close / 24h horizon, with no fine-tuning pipeline
- Calibrated quantile envelope as the primary output — validated at ~79% coverage on the 80% band over a 74-day / 1,800-candle XRP holdout
- Rebuilt risk gate: band-width percentile drives a position-size multiplier, with regime-breakout detection against the previous forecast band, stacked penalties on a hard floor, and fail-safe
stalehandling so the agent never trades on a missing or stale signal - Forward-looking macro layer: a FOMC / CPI / PPI / Fed-chair / CLARITY-Act calendar wired into the gate that auto-cuts size ahead of scheduled catalysts (HIGH ×0.4, ELEVATED ×0.8) — roughly 25% size about 12h before an FOMC decision
- Automated out-of-sample evaluator freezes a forecast and grades it at horizon end — band coverage, MAE/MAPE, directional call, worst breach — with macro-window context, as a scheduled one-shot job
- Evaluation harness reports the unflattering truth (directional hit rate, MAE, calibration coverage); those results are what drove dropping direction and volatility forecasting
- Data and execution: multi-source price feed with fallback (OKX → Binance → Bybit) and Hyperliquid SDK execution. Planned — an authenticated Bybit feed and live VPS deployment